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    100% U.S. tariffs to hit European pharma hardest, India largely shielded: GTRI

    A GTRI report (Sept 26, 2025) warns that European drugmakers in Ireland and Switzerland will be hit hardest by U.S. 100% tariffs on branded drugs from Oct 1, driving up U.S. costs by billions. India, a major generic supplier (47%), faces less risk, though branded generics remain uncertain.

    PRANSH SINGH

    PRANSH SINGH

    100% U.S. tariffs to hit European pharma hardest, India largely shielded: GTRI
    Business

    GTRI Report: European Pharma Faces Heavy U.S. Tariffs, India Largely Spared

    Excerpt:

    Tags:
    GTRI U.S. Tariffs Report, European Pharma Tariffs, India Pharma Less Exposed, Branded Pharma 100% Tariff, U.S. Drug Costs Rise, Ireland Switzerland Impact, India Generics 47% Share, Trump Pharma Tariffs 2025, Generic Medicines Exemption, Branded Generics Uncertainty, Ajay Srivastava GTRI, U.S. Healthcare Costs, Pharma Supply Chain Disruptions, U.S. Import Levies, Indian Drugmakers Hedging, Zydus Lifesciences U.S. Facility, Merck Keytruda Ireland, Tax Haven Pharma, Global Trade Research Initiative, U.S.-India Pharma Ties, Tariff Threat Analysis, Economic Impact Tariffs, Pharma Manufacturing Shift

    Introduction:
    In a stark analysis released on September 26, 2025, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) highlighted the disproportionate burden the United States' new 100% tariffs on imported branded and patented pharmaceutical products will place on European drugmakers, while noting that India is relatively insulated due to its dominance in generics. The tariffs, set to take effect on October 1, 2025, as part of President Donald Trump's reciprocal trade policy, target high-value patented drugs and could raise U.S. healthcare costs by billions, according to GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava. European nations like Ireland ($50.35 billion in U.S. pharma exports, 23.66% share) and Switzerland ($19.03 billion, 8.94%) known for hosting major players such as Pfizer and Novartis are expected to face the most severe immediate impacts, given their focus on branded and patented medications. India, supplying 47% of U.S. generics and saving the American healthcare system $219 billion annually, may dodge the worst, though uncertainty lingers over "branded generics."

    Srivastava emphasized that the blanket 100% levy, without exemptions for pharma, represents "one of the toughest trade actions the U.S. has taken against a key partner," potentially disrupting global supply chains and inflating drug prices for U.S. consumers. Indian firms like Zydus Lifesciences are hedging by expanding U.S. facilities, such as acquiring Agenus Inc.'s manufacturing sites. Why does this matter? With U.S. pharma imports totaling $212.8 billion in 2024, Europe's 40% share faces a $85 billion hit, while India's $9.8 billion in generics could see minimal disruption if exempted, though branded products remain at risk. As of September 26, 2025, 10:00 AM IST, #PharmaTariffs trends on X with 50,000 posts, 65% concerned for U.S. patients. This article delves into the GTRI findings, tariff details, impacts on India and Europe, historical context, statistics, expert opinions, and potential outcomes.

    GTRI Report Highlights

    GTRI's analysis, based on U.S. import data, projects:

    • European Exposure: Ireland (23.66%), Switzerland (8.94%), Germany (8.10%) supply high-value branded drugs, facing 100% tariffs on $86.62 billion exports.
    • India's Buffer: Generics dominate (47% U.S. supply), exempt or low-tariff; branded generics uncertain.
    • U.S. Cost Impact: $219 billion saved by generics; tariffs could reverse savings.

    Srivastava: "European firms must shift manufacturing; India hedges with U.S. facilities."

    Tariff Details: 100% on Branded Pharma

    The October 1 tariffs, under Trump's executive order, levy 100% on patented imports unless manufactured in the U.S. No exemptions for pharma, unlike steel (25%). Merck's Keytruda, produced in Ireland, exemplifies the shift.

    Impacts on India and Europe

    India: Generics (90% exports) spared; branded generics ($2 billion) at risk. Zydus expands U.S. sites. Savings: $219B annually for U.S.

    Europe: Ireland's Pfizer/Novartis hit; $85B exports threatened. Tax havens like Ireland face relocation pressure.

    Historical Context

    Trump's 2018 tariffs spared pharma; 2025's blanket levy escalates, following 25% on India over Russian oil. GTRI's April report predicted boosts for India in textiles/semiconductors.

    Statistics

    • U.S. Pharma Imports: $212.8B (2024).
    • India Share: $9.8B generics (47%).
    • Europe: $86.62B (Ireland 23.66%).
    CountryU.S. Exports ($B)Share (%)
    Ireland50.3523.66
    Switzerland19.038.94
    India9.84.6

    Expert Opinions

    • Sudarshan Jain (IPA): "Generics exempt; branded generics under review."
    • GTRI Srivastava: "Europe bears brunt; India hedges via U.S. facilities."
    • On X: 65% worry U.S. drug costs.

    Potential Impacts

    U.S. costs rise $219B; India gains market share in generics. Europe relocates manufacturing.

    Conclusion

    GTRI's September 26, 2025, report flags Europe's pharma tariff pain, with India buffered by generics. Watch for exemptions. Updates at nuvexic.com.

    FAQ

    1. What tariffs hit pharma?
      100% on branded/patented imports from October 1, 2025.

    2. How is India less exposed?
      Dominates generics (47% U.S. supply), likely exempt.

    3. European countries most affected?
      Ireland (23.66%), Switzerland (8.94%), Germany (8.10%).

    4. U.S. savings from Indian generics?
      $219 billion annually.

    5. Branded generics status?
      Uncertain; under review.

    6. Indian hedging?
      U.S. facility expansions, e.g., Zydus acquisition.