Nifty Trade Setup for September 26: Key Support at 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement

Introduction:
The Nifty 50 index ended a turbulent week on September 25, 2025, with a 0.81% decline to 25,149.85, marking the fifth consecutive session of losses and breaching the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 25,200. The downturn was driven by broad-based profit booking, with 39 of 50 constituents in the red, led by heavyweights like HDFC Bank (-1.16%) and Reliance Industries (-1.46%). The Nifty Midcap 100 fell 0.64%, and Smallcap 100 dipped 0.57%, snapping their multi-day gains, while pharma and IT sectors lagged. As global caution prevails ahead of U.S. GDP data and PCE inflation gauge on September 26-27, the index's bearish bias persists, with RSI at 56.7 below its signal line.

For September 26, traders eye the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 25,050 as crucial support, formed from the September 18 high of 25,448 to the August 29 low of 24,404. A break below could trigger further downside to 24,930 (50% retracement and mid-Bollinger Band), while a close above 25,350 signals reversal toward 25,750-26,000. Bank Nifty, down 0.35% to 56,754.7, finds support at 55,000-54,900 (20-day EMA and 61.8% retracement), with resistance at 55,900-56,000. Why does this matter? With monthly F&O expiry on September 26, volatility is expected in the 25,050-25,350 range, influenced by U.S. data and FII flows. As of September 26, 2025, 7:00 AM IST, GIFT Nifty at 25,075 (-44 points) suggests a flat to negative open. This article provides trade setup, levels, strategies, historical context, statistics, expert views, and outlook.

Trade Setup for Nifty on September 26

Key Levels

• Resistance: 25,350 (immediate), 25,500 (strong), 25,750-26,000 (target on breakout).
• Support: 25,050 (61.8% Fib), 24,930 (50% Fib/mid-BB), 24,890 (next).
• Range: 25,050-25,350; break decides direction.

Strategy

• Bullish: Buy on close above 25,350; stop-loss 25,200; target 25,750.
• Bearish: Short below 25,050; stop-loss 25,150; target 24,930.
• Volatility: Expect swings near expiry; use options for hedges.

Bank Nifty Setup

• Resistance: 55,900-56,000 (61.8% Fib).
• Support: 55,000-54,900 (20-day EMA).
• Bias: Neutral; hold above support for calls.

Historical Context

Nifty's five-day fall echoes August 2024's 1,000-point drop on U.S. recession fears. The 61.8% Fib often acts as strong support.

Statistics

• Nifty Close: 25,149.85 (-0.81%).
• Midcap/Smallcap: -0.64% / -0.57%.
• FII Outflows: $2.5B in September.

Expert Opinions

Sudeep Shah (SBI Securities): "Nifty's 25,050 support crucial; above 25,500 targets 26,000." On X, 65% expect range-bound trading.

Potential Impacts

Expiry volatility could swing 200 points; U.S. data may trigger 1% move.

Conclusion

Nifty's setup for September 26, 2025, hinges on 25,050 support post-five-day fall. Trade cautiously near expiry. Updates at nuvexic.com.

FAQ

1. What is Nifty's next major support level?
   The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 25,050.

2. Why did Nifty fall for five days?
   Profit booking, FII outflows, and U.S. data caution.

3. Bank Nifty resistance?
   55,900-56,000 zone.

4. Expected range for September 26?
   25,050-25,350, with expiry volatility.

5. Bullish target above 25,500?
   25,750-26,000.

6. Bearish target below 25,050?
   24,930-24,890.